Global deaths from swine flu pandemic will exceed 34 million
disclaimer: I’m not a statistician so check the figures for yourself using the listed references.
The World Health Organization has been publishing data on the spread of the H1N1 influenza strain since 24-Apr (ref WHO site… http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/updates/en/index.html ).
Since then we’ve seen the count of officially confirmed cases rise in a roughly linear fashion to a total of 28,774 (as at 11-Jun). This is up over the period of a week from 19,273 (as at 3-Jun). At the time of writing, the total number of deaths (globally) stood at 142. This gives us an average global death rate of 0.51%.
With the current global population at 6.7 billion (ref USA Census bureau… http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html ) this would give a likely death total over 34 million. This is compared to the Spanish Flu Pandemic that began in 1918 which is estimated to have caused the deaths of over 50 million.
Regional Variation & Worst Case Scenario
One area of potential variation is in the death rates between countries. While it should be noted that deaths have only been reported in 7 out of the 73 countries in the WHO data, the variation in total death rates between those countries ranges from 0.118% in Chile to 1.698% in Mexico. Using those death rates as an indicator we could see deaths range between 8 and 125 million worldwide.
Speculation on a worst case scenario could see largely rural and sometimes impoverished peoples in emerging nations suffering a higher death rate than these figures would indicate.
And now is where it gets particularly scary. The H5N1 Avian Influenza death rate is more like 61% (ref… http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2009_06_02/en/index.html ). A blending between the H1N1 (swine) and the H5N1 (avian) influenza strains may see a dramatically more virulent variety emerge with death rates that can only be imagined.
Impact of Nationalized Health
With the current debate around Obama’s push for health care reform in the USA it may be relevant to note the variation in the death rate in 1st world countries, specifically between the USA (at 0.204%) and Canada (at 0.118%). This may indicate the effect of widely available health care and it’s impact by facilitating early intervention.
If those rates continue over time, we could see total deaths in the USA reach 626,425. If the USA had the benefit of a death rate more like Canada’s the total deaths in the USA would be 124,959 lower at 501,466.
I wonder if the USA Legislators on Capitol Hill will see the sense in health care reform if it will save a significant number of lives.
For those of you in the USA who are listening to the media spin stating that “health care reform is a socialist plot” (put out by the health industry lobbyists that are spending money hand-over-fist on “influencing” those same legislators) please bear in mind that as of writing this post the death toll in Australia is nil.
You all know of Australia as one of the USA’s staunchest allies; a country with nationalised health care and universal unemployment insurance (ref… national health==> http://www.medicareaustralia.gov.au/ & universal unemployment ==> http://www.centrelink.gov.au/ ).
By the standards of some people in the USA that would make Australia a socialist country. A country I am proud to be a citizen of.
